Tuesday, November 8, 2016

The Professor Is Right Again

Professor Helmuth Norpoth of Stony Brook University on Long Island correctly called this election for Donald Trump back in February, when everyone -- and I mean everyone -- was confident that Trump would lose by a big margin. Later in the season, he was joined by a different professor using a different model, but who went contrary to the popular trends and predicted the same result.

The biggest loser in this election was not Hillary Clinton. She lost, and lost decisively, to be sure -- but the professors' models predicted she would lose, and they've been infallible in past elections for decades. (Of course, as I write this, she has declined to concede, and no doubt will seriously consider trying to mount an Al Gore-style challenge in the closest States. So be it -- there is no one, not even Bill, who at this point could convince her to stand down if she has decided not to. UPDATE 11/09/16: Hillary called Trump in private to concede the race, we are told -- she did not make a speech.)

No, the biggest loser -- actually, losers (to use a term beloved of our President-elect) -- are (1) the Beltway elite; and (2) the mainstream media -- who gave it everything they had, and still fell way short.

The Beltway elite -- everyone from the K Street lobbyists to the RINOs to, sad to say, Paul Ryan -- know that Donald Trump is beyond their power to control. His unpredictability spells their ruin (witness the debacle that Wall Street will endure tomorrow, as I write this some eight hours before the markets open). [UPDATE 11/09/16: From a reported deep plunge in after-hours trading, mirrored on several world markets, the Dow Jones has recovered nicely -- it seems that Wall Street suddenly sees good prospects with the news of Trump's victory, rather than the dire consequences predicted by the left.] Their cozy arrangements, consultancy contracts, special breaks in legislation that they themselves write -- all this will be out the window with a Trump administration, and they will have to go begging for jobs and sources of revenue. (Note that the District of Columbia went 93% for Clinton, and just 4% for Trump; there were similar percentages in the neighboring affluent counties of Maryland and Virginia.)

It couldn't happen to a nicer bunch -- because they way underestimated how much their haughty arrogance had angered the rank and file of the American public. (A friend reminded me of a highly prescient Doonesbury cartoon ridiculing one of Trump's earlier feints toward a run for the presidency. One of the Doonesbury regulars acidly remarks: "Who's going to be his constituency? The forgotten a--holes?")

Exactly, Mr. Trudeau; exactly. Spot on. And I know you will keep it up.

As will the second crowd of biggest losers, the mainstream media. The difference between them and the beltway elite, however, is that they will be unable to recognize how much ground they have lost.

Starting tomorrow, it is child's play to predict the memes that will dominate the post-election mainstream media: "Trump will need to 'reach out' [one of their favorite mantras] to heal the divisions he has caused with this election . . ." "The world will become a good deal more scary with a Trump at the helm -- he could land us in a war with Russia . . .". "Trump will be bad for business and the economy, because no one can predict what he will do . . .". "Trump will destroy what it took President Obama so long bring about that is beneficial to this country: Obamacare, Dodd-Frank financial restrictions, environmental limits on growth and emissions, restraining global warming and the melting of the icecaps (remember the poor polar bears!), bringing peace and security to the Middle East, putting Israel in its place, raising the minimum wage, solving the immigration problem, regaining the world's respect for our country in the United Nations and in foreign affairs . . ." and on and on and on, ad nauseam.

It is my dearest hope that with each repetition of these vacuous liberal mantras, the mainstream media will lose ever more and more of their readers and listeners, to the point where they, too, will have to look around for other lines of work.

And last but not least, James Comey's stalwart agents in the field may finally be able to investigate some people worthy of their attention: start with Comey's former boss, Loretta Lynch, and her attempts to squelch the ongoing investigations into Hillary's violations of our secrecy laws; move on to Patrick Kennedy and the whole corrupt bunch at the State Department who lied about Benghazi and then have been enabling and hiding Hillary's outrageous and dangerous disregard for our security; then to the IRS and its illegal targeting of conservative non-profit groups; then to Eric Holder and his scheme of gun-running, while also letting others get away with voter intimidation; and ...  oh, yes -- did I mention a certain former Secretary of State? And her husband? Who together enriched themselves by selling access and favoritism at this country's expense? And broke all the laws about charitable organizations in the process?

Who knows where all this is going to lead, indeed? Certainly not the entrenched elite, nor their lapdogs, the mainstream media.

Mind you: I do not blindly endorse Mr. Trump and his ways. (Indeed, I agree with C.S. Lewis, who once wrote: "Of all tyrannies, a tyranny exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busibodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some time be satisfied; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end, for they do so with the approval of their own consciences.") Mr. Trump will have to mind his manners a lot more, and surround himself with advisers who are much more knowledgeable than he is in particular areas. But that is what businessmen who are promoted to head up major corporations traditionally do.

No, what I am celebrating tonight is the radical shakeup of the Washington establishment. They have needed it for a long, long time.

And no one can assure us that a shakeup of this magnitude will be totally beneficial in all ways -- some things that are truly good may perish along with so much else that is so bad, and deserves to come to an end. As I have maintained throughout this campaign, America is under God's judgment -- which is why we were presented with the Hobson's choice we had. We are not out from under that judgment yet, because America has not yet turned back from its ways, and repented of its manifold sins and wickedness. Whether it will do so under its new government remains to be seen.

So fasten your seatbelts. It's going to be a riveting ride.


  1. I wonder if Trump hadn't said some of the things that served as sound bites in Clinton commercials, perhaps his margin of victory would have been greater.

  2. If only all the bureaucrats in DC would now be put to work deleating all the regulations they have imposed on the States, in contradiction of the 10th Amendment, and bring government back close to the People as required by our Constitution.
    If only

  3. Mr. Trump has some solid Christians, including Mike Pence, advising him. God has said that if we humble ourselves, as his people and pray, he will heal our land. He has also said that the effectual fervent prayer of a righteous man (man or woman) avails much.
    While I agree that God could righteously wipe us out as a country because of our sins, what about the righteous ones who live here?
    At last, I have a government in place where I don't think my feeble prayers on their behalf will be wasted.

  4. I have spent several hours watching TV this week, not as entertainment (for sure) but switching between CNN & MSNBC , and as you predicted, they are "blaming" Trumps victory on uneducated white men, and by that they mean only high school. Lots of news that schools are having to offer counseling to grieving students, from grade schools through the universities! (Sigh)

    1. As an 80something lefty adult who has lived through Reagan, Carter, both Bushes, Clinton and Obama, I wonder at the persistence of our state (can't call it a democracy or a republic in the old sense), maybe a persistent oligarchy? But we still endure as a nation. How long it will last, I dunno, but I doubt that Trump will destroy it.
      Jim of Olym

  5. John Michael Greer, the retired Archdruid of a druid order in the US called it for Trump back in January, just so you know.
    Jim of Olym